Very low numbers...

A bit more on the low Australian property numbers, an SMH article making the point they coincided with the ending of a government subsidy scheme.  Like the Warren Bufffet favourite of a naked swimmer exposed by the receding tide (in this case receding government subsidies) what is key is that the ending of the first home buyer's grant is not part of the whole story.  

The accompanying recording of Dr Andrew Wilson of Australian Property Monitors is interesting, you get a sense of fear and uncertainty.  Likewise from Sydney estate agent Shannan Whitney:

...Yesterday the BresicWhitney principal Shannan Whitney was surprised at the extent of the first-home buyer collapse. "Those numbers are quite dramatic," he said (here).

Oz banks - on the edge of the precipe

Or as the Financial Times' Lex Column put it - Australian lenders could, with a downturn in the economy - suffer what it termed an "Oz-pop".  Noting the sector's current strengths, banks unlike property developers have not written down the value of their  loan portfolios collateralised by residential properties (for which Australia is one of the most overvalued markets globally according to the Economist).

....The markets of the world are littered with the victims of housing bubbles – those that bet against them too soon as well as those that did not see them coming. Australia is no different. Developers are writing down land values but the big banks, which rely heavily on homeowners for profits, are still investor darlings...

....[Commonwealth Bank] has the sort of stodgy balance sheet regulators everywhere now praise as the model [vast majority home loans and local]. But if the Aussie housing market stumbles, so will its big lenders and market headway from here looks uncertain at best. Stockland and Mirvac, two large developers, have knocked a combined A$600m off the value of their properties in the past fortnight....(here).