Tuesday, 26 March 2013

Pettis on risks to Australia...

Great interview out (here).  Some highlights: (in response to the impact changing Chiinese growth will have)

...First of all investment growth will slow down significantly and maybe even go negative which means that China, which is a disproportionately large source of demand for hard commodities, 60 per cent of iron ore, 40 per cent of global copper, etc, that demand is going to go down significantly. That will hurt the commodity exporting sector which is unfortunately very important in Australia.
The other important consequence is that as China rebalances almost by definition that means China’s export competitiveness will be eroded which is very good for the manufacturing sectors around the world. So in Australia we’ll see the commodity sector get badly hurt, the manufacturing sector do relatively well but in the short term the balance will be negative. I think growth rates will slow down significantly here....

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