Thursday, 15 August 2013

Factoring in the China slump

Election season in Australia kicked off with announcements that the mining boom was over - perhaps a good opportunity to align voter's expectations prior to starting on the campaign trail.  But there does seem genuine concern of the risks to Australia from a China meltdown, not only from the RBA but also from ratings agency Standard and Poor's:

Australian banks' credit ratings would be cut by up to two notches and house prices would fall by as much as a quarter if China's economy were to slow sharply, Standard & Poor's says.
In a report assessing how Australia's financial system would respond to a ''hard landing'' in China, the credit rating agency says a dramatic slowing in Asia's growth engine would have severe ripple effects on the domestic economy.
S&P sees a hard landing in China - where growth slows from about 7.5 per cent now to 5 per cent - as unlikely, attaching only slight probability to this scenario.
But if growth did slow this sharply, it says Australian banks would face credit rating cutsbecause of their heavy exposure to the domestic economy and the $1.2 trillion mortgage market. (here)

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