Wednesday 27 February 2013

AUD is not a reserve currency...

An interesting side issue from the currency war debate.  In talking up the likely devaluation of the Aussie dollar, Debelle mentioned its widespread holdings among central banks.  It is true that hot money, including from central banks has been attracted to Australian bonds, with Australia seen as a relative safe haven, having high interest rates and good metrics.  

First thing to note is that metrics are degrading.  Swan's budget is sinking into deficit like a dead dodo (estimates are sinking to $15 billion here).  This means less incentive to hold Aussie dollar bonds.

But more significantly, Australia is a very small economy.  The argument made previously for not intervening is that Australia's debt markets and central bank are too small to counteract global flows.  Overall, thanks to mining plays, Australia's dollar has the character of an emerging market currency, once hot and decoupled from atlantic turmoil, now facing outflows.

Unlike China, which cannot sell parts of its massive holding of treasuries for fear of wiping out its remaining holdings, there is no reason why all those central banks Debelle is talking about will feel inclined to keep their Aussie bonds.  Debelle said:


....There's no limit on our ability to supply Australian dollars...we have more Australian dollars than anyone else in the world because we print them," he added, pointing out that Switzerland had successfully capped the value of the Swiss franc against the euro since 2011....(here)
Firstly there is no comparison between Switerland and Australia in terms of the size of their fx markets or Switzerland's proximity to the Eurozone.  Secondly and more importantly, who will even want Aussie dollars in months and year's time? 

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