Monday 18 February 2013

Tall tales

There is a level of confusion as to the state of the Australian economy and likely risks and even those at the top can't agree.

...Three of Australia's big four banks have given market updates this month. You'd be forgiven for wondering if they were discussing the same market....The discrepancy in viewpoints is partly explained by the different business models of the three banks. Commonwealth Bank is the country's biggest retail lender, which means it benefits most from rising consumer confidence....
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..NAB and ANZ are both more exposed to business lending, where sentiment is weaker. A survey from East & Partners, for instance, last week found that demand for all types of business banking services fell between November and January by an average of 1.9%....Despite their differing outlooks, investors overall still seem to like Australia's banks, deemed to be among the most credit worthy in the world. (here).

Yet meanwhile the central narrative underpinning the actual (or purported) growth was in fact being unwound by the central bank, the RBA:

...The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) says the mining investment boom will peak sooner and at a lower level than previously expected.
The central bank also says that while commodity prices are likely to drift lower over the next few years, Australia will continue to benefit from China's economic expansion...."And as mining investment tails away, we'll increasingly move into the operational phase of the mining boom," he said.(here)
Just to spell it out - the mining boom has been and gone....and there is not so much to prop up the Oz economy...

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