Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Farewell good times

Colebatch in the Sydney Morning Herald with a firm take down on the Australian economy's growth aspirations.  Building on Ross Garnaut's recent assessment which was profiled in this blog, it makes for a really shocking read - the China bust, uncompetitive currency and interest rates, falling tax revenue, unfunded commitments and an aging society.  Ouch.  Is this the opening of a door into the bad old days of the recession we had to have?

Our economy is poised to go bust and only tax rises and spending cuts can save us.... 
One of Australia's most respected economists, Ross Garnaut, of the University of Melbourne, warns that when the mining boom busts, the economy is likely to bust with it. History is on his side. Since 2005, mining investment has reared up like a tidal wave, from 2 per cent of GDP to more than 8 per cent. If it breaks like a tidal wave, it will swamp the economy.... 
The bottom line is that something's got to give. Australia cannot continue this level of spending with this level of revenue.....
The end of the mining boom, however, could throw all this out. Garnaut, a former ambassador to China, says we underestimate the seriousness of China's rulers in planning to shift its economy to a more gradual, less resource-intensive growth path...But every mining boom since the war has ended in a bust, and there is no reason to think this time will be different. It was a very big boom, so it could be a very big bust. (here

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